Analisis Saham, Grafik, Harga Saham BANK NIFTY (BANKNIFTY) apakah Anda merasa masih ada kemungkinan 12951 dalam penyelesaian march. Bila saya melihat titik pivot tapi 90 kali tidak akan Mencapai support atau resistance dan berubah setiap hari maka kenapa saya yang harus mengikuti, lilin yang terbentuk tidak akan cocok dengan pola dan support atau resistance yang akan dipatahkan dengan mudah, ketika saya terus stop loss maka akan terpukul dan mencapai target nanti, jika saya tidak berhenti stop loss. Aku akan berada dalam kerugian yang dalam. Indikator menunjukkan sinyal beli dan dalam waktu singkat akan menunjukkan sinyal jual, di antara saya kehilangan sebagian besar modal saya. Setelah saya mempertimbangkan semua ini, saya membeli opsi put option call, yang telah kedaluwarsa tanpa nilai. Aku muak dengan semua kerugian yang menimpaku. Pls ada yang bisa membantu saya atau jika hal yang sama berlanjut saya tidak tinggal di dunia ini, karena saya sudah ketagihan dengan pasar saham, saya tidak bisa mengungkapkan id email saya atau no mobile. Pada titik ini, pls berkomunikasi dalam komentar pengguna topstockresearch, jika Anda memberi no. Saya akan menghubungi Anda, akan sangat membantu saya untuk hidup di dunia ini dari Anda. Dengan sepenuh hati saya menulis ini. Pls mempertimbangkan asap Diposting oleh AAKASH Diposting pada: 25-Feb-2016 pembaca setia untuk bank nifty akan melengkapi kaki terakhir pola kepiting bullish yang lebih dalam seperti yang dikonfirmasi oleh tindakan harga terkini, ini adalah kaki terakhir penjualan di bank yang mungkin berakhir pada 12961 lagi saya akan update sama disini jika saya melihat pembalikan terbentuk di sana jadi pegang senapan anda dan tunggu level yang akan datang jangan sampai menekan pelatuk sebelum levelnya tercapai satu hal lagi bank nifty daily range adalah 246 saat ini jadi Mungkin memerlukan 2-3 hari untuk tingkat saya untuk datang sampai kemudian bersabar tidak lama pada level ini tidak menutup posisi ur jika membeli di level 14000 dan di atas juga mengumpulkan lebih banyak untuk ayunan upside yang lebih besar dan liar sampai kemudian semua trading aman terbaik PERTAMA BELAJAR ATURAN PERMAINAN LEBIH BAIK LEBIH BAIK DARI ORANG LAIN. AAKASH R KOTHHARI Diposting oleh Prabhat Diposting pada: 09-Feb-2016 Jual uang bank 15190 - 15210 sl 15300 40closing basis41 tgt 14955, 14870, 14790. 1st amp 2nd tgt tercapai dan 3 tgt hampir tercapai. Hari ini pagi Diposting oleh Prabhat Diposting pada: 05-Feb-2016 Menjual uang tunai 15190 - 15210 sl 15300 40closing basis41 tgt 14955, 14870, 14790.Zach Menurunkan tingkat tahunan NBA Sudah waktunya untuk tradisi pramusim terakhir kami: memasukkan 30 tim ke tingkatan Jepret tempat mereka dalam hirarki liga pada saat yang berharga ini ketika semua orang 0-0. Ini bukan peringkat kekuatan yang ketat, dan urutan dalam setiap bucket tidak penting. Setidaknya ada setengah lusin tim yang bisa meluncur naik atau turun satu tingkat, atau bahkan di tiga pusat dangkal NBA sangat kacau. PESERTA TRILOGO Golden State Warriors Cleveland Cavaliers Weve tidak pernah melihat trilogi NBA Finals, tapi seperti keadaan sekarang, hasil lainnya akan mengejutkan. Apa yang LeBron lakukan ke Golden State Juni lalu harus memberi jeda kepada siapapun yang mengurapi tim super berkepala empat ini. Penampilannya saat menghadapi eliminasi di Game 5 dan 6 - gabungan 82 poin, 29 rebound, 16 assist, dan enam blok aura-break - berdiri sebagai back-to-back terbesar dalam sejarah Final. Dia membayangkan cara untuk mengalahkan lawan yang spesifik ini, dan kemudian mewujudkannya. Dia menyeret Stephen Curry melalui rintangan dan pick-and-rolls sampai dia memecahkan cukup banyak ruang untuk sesuatu - sebuah drive yang gemuruh, lobs lembut yang menetes ke Tristan Thompson, laser cross-court untuk menandai penembak. Dia membujuk Draymond Green untuk bertahan, beralih ke Curry, dan menguapkan pick-and-roll Curry-Green yang merupakan launchpad ke seribu petunjuk utama yang terbuka. Dengan Game 5, orang-orang Cavaliers memahami besarnya tantangan Golden State - bagaimana separuh detik miskomunikasi mengenai pertahanan bisa membatalkan keunggulan 20 detik, dan betapa beratnya para pejuang yang bahagia dan menyeringai akan menghukum kesalahan kecil. Cavs telah bermain keras sebelumnya, tapi mereka tidak memaksakan diri melampaui hal itu, dan ke dalam kabut kelelahan mental dan fisik total. Mereka tahu sekarang apa yang dibutuhkan untuk mengalahkan raksasa ini. Mereka tahu mereka bisa memanggilnya, karena memang sudah mereka lakukan. The Warriors, tentu saja, mengalami beberapa renovasi kecil selama musim panas. Kevin Durant membawa Harrison Barnes masuk dalam Death Lineup yang kebanggaan, menghapus salah satu dari dua titik di mana lawan - termasuk Cleveland saat Kevin Love bermain - akan menyembunyikan pria besar mereka. Jika Tristan Thompson dan Love berada di lantai melawan kelompok tersebut, salah satu dari mereka akan menjaga Andre Iguodala. Sementara yang lain menjaga Bermain dua bigs tradisional melawan lineup ini akan jauh lebih sulit daripada melawan Versi 1.0. Untung Cavs mengumpulkan kedalaman sayap mereka dengan menambahkan Mike Dunleavy Jr. dan mengakhiri kontes menatap mereka dengan J. R. Smith. Masih: Awasi Iman Shumpert. Beberapa tim, termasuk Minnesota, telah mengetahui ketersediaannya dalam beberapa minggu terakhir dan mendapat kesan bahwa Cleveland siap untuk berbicara, menurut beberapa sumber liga. The Cavs wont gaji-dump Shump untuk apa-apa, tapi mengingat situasi pajak mereka, pemotongan gaji oleh beberapa juta janji eksponensial tabungan. Cavs membutuhkan Shumpert, atau setidaknya versi pemain yang disadari sepenuhnya seperti dia, untuk bermain scamper dan beralih dengan formasi kecil Golden States. Tanpa dia, mereka mempertaruhkan pembalasan Dunleavy, Richard Jefferson, dan kekuatan ekstra mereka. Mudah untuk menyarankan lawan membela Death Lineup hanya mengabaikan Green dan Iguodala - bahwa tembakan dari salah satu dari mereka adalah sebuah kemenangan. Tapi mengabaikannya berarti melepaskan jalur mengemudi yang terbuka lebar, dan tiba-tiba Anda berhadapan dengan sebuah pilihan: mengakui sebuah layup, atau mengirim bantuan dari Curry, Durant atau Klay Thompson. Anda tidak bisa membuat skrip sebuah rencana yang hanya membantu pemain Golden States yang lebih lemah, dan hanya memberi mereka jumper. Durant memberi mereka terlalu banyak pilihan - kombinasi pick-and-roll baru yang tahan lama dengan Curry, dan sekolah tua melemparkannya ke pemain terbaik ketiga di NBA di tempat pembuangan sampah ketika pertahanan hiperaktif mengalahkan barang-barang Golden States yang lebih cantik. Bila dihitung, Warriors akan memainkan grup super kecil ini bahkan lebih banyak daripada yang asli. Ini harus lebih baik pada kedua ujungnya, dengan peningkatan perlindungan pelek Durant setinggi 7 kaki, dan memblokir lebih banyak tembakan musim lalu daripada yang dimiliki Barnes dalam karirnya. Tidak jelas bagaimana Anda bahkan mulai mempertahankannya. Keadaan Golden State telah dihasilkan darinya dalam pramusim telah hampir menggelikan. Ya, mereka punya beberapa masalah. Zaza Pachulia sedang mempelajari tali, dan kedalaman di luar tujuh besar belum terbukti. JaVale McGee reruntuhan semuanya. Theres kesempatan non-nol Sam Presti dendam membayar dia untuk menyabot para Warriors. Pada suatu malam, Golden State akan menjadi dingin dari dalam. Beri Cleveland dua malam di bulan Juni, dan mereka punya kesempatan. Tapi Pachulia akan menangkap kita hanya delapan bulan dari status pahlawannya yang mapan untuk menstabilkan label kain Mavs. Seseorang di bangku akan pop. Dan ketika Warriors menempatkan lima orang terbaik mereka di lantai, mereka mengubah permainan menjadi masalah matematika yang hampir tidak bisa dipecahkan siapa pun. AINT NEVER GONNA MEMBERI UP Los Angeles Clippers Jika Blake Griffin bisa menjadi pemain terbaik di dunia selama dua minggu, Clippers adalah satu-satunya tim Western Conference yang memiliki kemampuan meledak dan presisi untuk menantang Golden State di playoff. Kami melihat Griffin ini pada putaran pertama melawan San Antonio dua tahun lalu. Dia meletakkan sampah di pos, mengarahkan jeda cepat, dan mengosongkan tangki di kedua ujungnya lebih dari 41 menit per game. Neraka harus beralih ke lima posisi, menekan 3 poin penembak, buru-buru kembali ke dalam untuk mengendalikan kaca, dan kemudian menggertak Golden States hanya titik lemah di ujung sana. DeAndre Jordan harus melakukan hal yang sama. Bersama-sama, mereka memiliki kebrutalan vertikal yang tidak cocok dengan Warriors. Clippers hanya mempertahankan integritas atas cukup banyak barang defensif penuh di semua kerugian demoralisasi di Golden State. Jordan atau Griffin akan memakamkan saklar pertama, melacak pria baru mereka selama tiga detik, dan kemudian merusak tindakan penyaringan Golden States berikutnya - meninggalkan kantong udara yang fatal. Lebih dari 19 pertandingan selama tiga musim terakhir, Warriors telah melontarkan L. A. sekitar 109 poin per 100 barang dengan tembakan 40 persen dari dalam. Anda tidak bisa memukul setiap langkah tarian melawan Warriors mereka menempatkan Anda melalui terlalu terkutuk banyak. Tapi Clippers harus memukul lebih untuk mengatasi kelemahan struktural mereka - sebuah lubang di depan kecil, dan kurangnya ukuran sepanjang perimeter. Chris Paul tidak cukup 6-0, dan J. J. Redicks lengan pendek mereka dapat melakukan hanya begitu banyak ketika mereka beralih ke Durant atau Green. (Pertarungan Paul-Green sesekali di blok tersebut menyajikan beberapa ketegangan yang tegang dan kusut, dan kemungkinan tembakan pangkal paha simultan.) Neraka, Klay Thompson merasa nyaman melakukannya, dan lebih lagi, Redick. Jamal Crawford mungkin tidak bisa bermain dalam hitungan menit dalam pertarungan ini dengan hukuman Warriors bamboozles kepadanya. Sungai Austin bisa bermain lebih banyak, termasuk dalam formasi tiga penjaga dengan Paul dan Redick - sebuah pengaturan di mana Griffin mungkin harus menjaga Durant langsung melawan kelompok Golden State tertentu. Mereka mungkin membutuhkan Wesley Johnson, dan membutuhkan Wesley Johnson tidak akan pernah berhasil dengan baik bagi siapa pun. Clippers mungkin seorang pria pendek - dan mungkin dua. Kelompok ini tidak berhasil melampaui putaran kedua. Keruntuhan mereka terhadap Houston tetap tak dapat dijelaskan, bahkan dua tahun kemudian. Tapi pada kecepatan penuh, mereka mengagumkan, dan Griffin memiliki level lain masih di dalam dirinya. TERBAIK DARI REST San Antonio Spurs Its keren jika Anda menginginkannya di tingkat yang lebih tinggi. Mereka membukukan margin skor lebih tinggi dari pada 73-win Warriors. Mereka akan memenangkan 55 pertandingan, dan Kawhi Leonard memiliki tendangan realistis pada pemain ganda MVP-Defensive of the Year. Baru saja melempar entri postingan sederhana seputar Leonard ibarat bermain Operation, lengkap dengan tangan gemetar karena cemas. Setidaknya satu atau dua orang dari bangku yang lebih muda akan mendapatkan kepercayaan penuh Gregg Popovich, sehingga dia bisa memotong menit Pau Gasols melawan Golden State - sama seperti yang dia lakukan dengan legenda penuaan lain musim lalu. Mereka sangat panjang di sekitar keranjang, dan harus tetap berada di posisi tiga besar. Gasol dan Aldridge akan menyeret kedua pria bertubuh besar itu 20 kaki dari pelek, jumper panjang hujan, dan memilih pemotong di lantai. Mereka hanya merasa ringan pada faktor pos. Beberapa dari itu adalah dengan desain mereka ingin memperlambat kecepatan, mundur Anda di blok, dan mengeksploitasi area kelas menengah yang diabaikan oleh semua orang. Mereka dibuat khusus, secara teori, bermain bola tinggi melawan jajaran Warriors yang lebih kecil. Tapi banyak post-up tersebut akan menghasilkan floaters dan perputaran tangguh. Green adalah blok cinder yang tidak dapat diubah, dan Durant cukup lama untuk menantang semuanya. Pertengkaran midrange terlihat hanya membuat Anda sejauh ini melawan pertahanan elit. Ketika jam tembakan itu menyusut, Anda memerlukan seorang pria yang bisa mengeluarkan ember dari nol - penggoda tinggi dengan beberapa keahlian mental, ace pick-and-roll, atau beberapa pogo-stick to cram lobs and put - Kembali dunks. Anda perlu bertahan selama lima atau enam menit pada titik transisi dan lemparan bebas. Clippers memiliki lebih banyak volatilitas itu daripada Spurs - terutama pada malam hari ketika Tony Parker terlihat seusianya. Boston Celtics Jamnya diam-diam berdetak. Transaksi Cheapo untuk Avery Bradley dan Yesaya Thomas akan berakhir setelah musim depan. Jika Boston mendaratkan ikan besar mereka sebelum itu, mereka akan membayar apa yang diperlukan untuk mempertahankannya - dengan asumsi setidaknya satu tersisa setelah Megatrade Celtic Theorical Greatorical. Jika Cs tidak dapat menemukan kecocokan mereka, mereka menghadapi dilema: Bayar orang-orang itu seperti 50 juta gabungan setiap tahun dan kunci ke dalam tim yang mungkin unggul paling banyak pada kemenangan 50-ish, atau hadapi salah satu dari mereka pada batas waktu musim depan - jika tidak sebelum. Ingat: Keduanya menghalangi undian lotre yang lebih muda. Banyak yang bisa terjadi antara sekarang dan Februari 2018. Tim Boston ini bisa melampaui harapan, atau melayang sekitar 48 kemenangan Celtics tampak sepi yakin mereka bisa mendorong Cavs musim ini jika beberapa kali mengalami kegagalan. LeBron akhirnya bisa menua (ha, ha). Kesepakatan tawar menawar kolektif baru mungkin akan mempermudah pemain untuk menandatangani perpanjangan kontrak, sebuah perubahan yang dapat memompa nilai perdagangan untuk Thomas dan Bradley bahkan saat kesepakatan mereka mendekati tim kadaluarsa yang membuat mereka merasa lebih mudah saat memperpanjangnya. Jika Celtics menyimpulkan tim musim ini tidak dapat membuat suara playoff yang sesungguhnya, Bradley menjadi potongan perdagangan yang licik meski Danny Ainge mencintainya. (Thomas adalah Boston yang sangat diperlukan tidak memiliki orang lain yang bisa menyamai gigi pertahanan musuh.) Tapi Boston harus membuat kebisingan playoff. Mereka memiliki margin skor dari tim 50-menang musim lalu. Al Horford mengembalikan setiap anggota badan dari sebuah pelanggaran yang tercekik di tengah jarak yang sempit. Dia penembak yang lebih baik dari pada semua Boston lainnya, kecuali Kelly Olynyk, dan merupakan pilihan pick-and-roll paling tepat sepanjang era Brad Stevens - kunci untuk sebuah tim yang menempati peringkat 27 yang jelek dalam poin per kepemilikan pada drama Screeners mereka selesai dengan tembakan, omset, atau pelanggaran busuk, per Synergy Sports. Boston juga harus melakukan yang lebih baik dari jauh dari 33,5 persen mengerikan yang dilanda musim lalu. Celtics dipaku hanya 34 persen dari sudut, yang terburuk keempat di liga Marcus Smart menembak 20 persen yang tak terpikirkan pada tiga kali lipat pendek, dan Bradley merosot ke 33 persen - outlier untuknya. Toss dalam pertahanan yang seharusnya berada di antara tiga atau empat stingiest, dan Boston mulai dalam keadaan mati dengan Toronto untuk unggulan 2. Toronto Raptors Ada banyak meremas-remas tangan saat kepergian sebuah pusat yang hampir tidak bisa menangkap bola basket. Bismack Biyombo sangat bagus untuk Raptors, dan tahan lama, tapi dia juga diuntungkan dengan bermain di unit cadangan hibrida dengan Kyle Lowry dan Patrick Patterson - kekuatan tradisional terbaik Torontos. Geser pusat cadangan musim ini - Jared Sullinger, Bebe Nogueira, salah satu pemula - ke dalam template yang sama, dan Raptors akan baik-baik saja. Jonas Valanciunas siap untuk lebih banyak lagi, dan dengan DeMarre Carroll sehat, Toronto akhirnya akan menemukan beberapa formasi eksplosif. Kelompok Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Carroll, Patterson, dan Valanciunas, misalnya, hanya mencatat 16 menit sepanjang musim lalu. Geser Carroll untuk maju, dan Toronto mungkin menemukan formasi switchy yang membentuk perlindungan pelek yang rapuh pada garis belakang dengan mencegah orang mengemudi dari sana. Norman Norm Powell bisa membantu membuka beberapa kelompok tersebut. Toronto mungkin menyelipkan rambut pada pertahanan, dan mereka akan merasakan ketidakhadiran Biyombos di papan sekarang dan nanti. Tapi orang-orang ini memiliki cukup bakat dan berbagi pengetahuan perusahaan dengan tim yang menghabiskan 40 game pertama untuk mengenal satu sama lain. Cinta drakes TIM ROCK SOLID PLAYOFF Indiana Pacers Indy menukar beberapa pertahanan (dan mungkin beberapa rebound) untuk mengurangi serangan yang hampir mati, namun mereka tidak menambahkan cukup banyak pemotretan dalam tawar-menawar untuk membuka ruang untuk semua jenis pengganggu mereka. Daftar dapat menambahkan hingga jumlah bagiannya. Dan itu baik-baik saja. Pacers memiliki bakat yang cukup untuk mencapai peringkat No. 4 bahkan jika para pemain tidak saling melengkapi dengan cara magis yang mengangkat tim ke bidang yang lebih tinggi. Mereka memiliki Paul George, pemain top 10 keseluruhan yang pasti. Paul George adalah bos. Myles Turner akan tumbuh menjadi tanggung jawab lini terakhir pertahanan barunya lebih cepat daripada yang berusia 20 tahun. Bangku yang diperkuat harus terus stabil setelah versi musim lalu hampir sendirian meniup seri pertama Indys melawan Toronto. Portland Trail Blazers Ada banyak skeptisisme seputar liga tentang Portland. Blazer menikmati kesehatan yang hampir sempurna musim lalu, dan meluncur ke dalam kekosongan daya yang tak terduga saat Utah, New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento, dan Houston meledak. Mereka menempati peringkat ke-21 yang buruk dalam poin yang diperbolehkan per kepemilikan, dan bermain di atas-.500 bola hanya saat pesiar midseason yang mendesis melawan tim yang kebanyakan buruk. Tapi perhatikan Blazer, dan Anda melihat tim matang nyaman di kulitnya sendiri - dan bersiaplah untuk jenis perbaikan organik yang datang saat rekan tim muda membaur. Mereka sangat berpengalaman dalam pelanggaran baca-dan-reaksi Terry Stotts, dan mereka harus keluar dari gerbang sedikit lebih baik dalam pertahanan sekarang sehingga mereka memulai Al-Farouq Aminu untuk maju. Lineup itu mengotori tingkat rendah, sangat penting bagi Blazer, yang menghabiskan sebagian besar musim ini untuk membongkar bejesus dari semua orang. Kelompok switchier yang lebih kecil lebih baik menahan bola di depannya. Itu masih akan menjadi tantangan bagi Portland dalam formasi cadangan kecuali Stotts benar-benar mengecilkan rotasi Meyers Leonard, Festus Ezeli, dan Ed Davis semuanya pada dasarnya berpusat, dan Blazer akan mengalami kesulitan untuk mengejar lawan yang lebih kecil saat mereka berdua bermain bersama. Potong hacks, dan Portland memiliki fondasi pertahanan kokoh. Mereka menarik satu ton orang tengah, dan mematikan area terlarang dan sudut yang berair. Para penentang menembak 42,5 persen yang tidak masuk akal pada beberapa usaha kecil yang mereka selali, per data pelacakan yang diberikan ke ESPN, dan jika keacakan acaknya menekan angka tersebut, Blazer setidaknya bisa mencapai rata-rata pertahanan liga. Houston Rockets Satu-satunya pertanyaan yang penting - dan yang sedikit lebih mendesak dengan kabar dari Calvin Watkins bahwa Patrick Beverley mungkin memerlukan operasi lutut: Seberapa buruk pertahanan Houstons akan Ada banyak bukti bahwa seorang elit Pertahanan adalah prediktor yang sedikit lebih kuat dari pertengkaran kejuaraan daripada pelanggaran elit, dan hal yang sama mungkin terjadi pada sisi negatifnya. Hanya tujuh tim yang masuk dalam lima terbawah dalam poin yang diperbolehkan per kepemilikan membuat playoff selama 20 musim terakhir, menurut data yang dikumpulkan oleh Informasi Statistik ESPN. Tim tersebut menempati peringkat ketiga rata-rata dalam efisiensi ofensif. Prognosis menjadi lebih baik jika Anda tidak mengerikan dalam 32 tim penuh, sekitar 1,5 per musim, mencicit ke babak playoff dengan pertahanan terbawah. Sementara itu, banyak lagi - 42 - masuk meskipun terbawah-10 pelanggaran selama peregangan 20 tahun yang sama. Houston akan mencetak gol dari bola. Jika mereka tetap sehat dan mendekati posisi 20 di pertahanan keseluruhan, mereka harus memenangkan cukup banyak permainan - sesuatu di usia 40-an - untuk mengamankan tempat. Itu tidak mudah bagi tim mana pun yang menampilkan Ryan Anderson, penyabot yang tidak perlu, dan tentu saja tidak akan mudah jika Houston mendapatkan versi koma James Harden dan Eric Gordon. Beberapa dari orang-orang ini memiliki sejarah cedera yang menakutkan. Tapi Harden sudah dalam keadaan baik, dan Rockets memiliki cukup bek bertahan - termasuk dua pusat - untuk mencapai beberapa tingkat kompetensi minimum. Setelah mungkin pelanggaran kedua terbaik di liga akan membantu lebih mudah untuk menetapkan pertahanan Anda dan berhenti setelah ember - atau bahkan lebih baik lagi, lemparan bebas. Oklahoma City Thunder Ini tidak akan cantik. Guntur miskin dalam pemotretan, dan mereka hanya tidak memiliki personil untuk mencambuk bola di sekitar dalam urutan passing berseni yang membangun ke crescendo orgasmik. Kejahatan mereka pasca-Durant adalah pukulan lurus ke depan yang mengarah ke dinding pembela. Dan pada banyak malam, mereka akan berjalan menembus tembok-tembok freaking itu. Anda pikir Russell Westbrook mengkhawatirkan ketiga pembela yang menunggu di garis putus-putus Ketika dia rindu pada pelek, tim terbaik tim rebound ofensif siap menerkam. Guntur tidak lagi memiliki kemewahan untuk melepaskan diri dari pertahanan, tapi mereka memiliki barang untuk dimainkan sampai akhir April. Saya sudah (menelan ludah) pada catatan memanggil musim 50-menang. MANFAAT TIM PLAYOFF DOUBT Detroit Pistons Detroit berlabuh di tingkat playoff yang solid sebelum masalah lutut Reggie Jacksons menjelang jadwal awal yang padat. Guru Analytics di tim lain telah mengolok-olok ketakutan saya tentang Jackson yang hilang mungkin seperempat dari musim yang mereka proyeksikan karena cedera tersebut mungkin menyebabkan Detroit hanya satu atau dua kemenangan. Mereka mungkin benar. Tapi Jackson-Andre Drummond yang menyebarkan pick-and-roll secara harfiah adalah Detroits offense. Mereka bisa mencoba menirunya dengan Ish Smith, tapi jumpernya adalah pembela yang rusak akan tersandung 10 kaki di bawah Drummonds untuk memotong drive pelacak Smiths. Stan Van Gundy memiliki obat penawar Drummond akan mengatur dua atau tiga layar berturut-turut agar Smith bisa bermain petak umpet, dan menetapkan beberapa pilihan di bawah garis busuk - jadi Smith sudah berada dalam jangkauan untuk pelampungnya yang sangat payah. Pertahanan cerdas dengan set kaki mereka akan menavigasi semua benda yang ada pada banyak barang, dan menyingkirkan Detroits offense. Bantu pembela HAM akan membanjiri cat dari segala arah sampai Kentavious Caldwell-Paus, Marcus Morris, dan Tobias Harris terbukti konsisten dari dalam. Van Gundy telah berbicara tentang diversifikasi ketidakhadiran Jacksons, dan Morris dan Harris dapat menyerap beberapa tugas kreatif. Drummond telah mengasah hook kanannya dan melewati daging sampai titik yang melemparkannya ke dia di blok bukanlah pilihan yang mengerikan. Bangku sebaiknya lebih baik dari lubang pembuangan musim lalu. Margin untuk kesalahan kecil tanpa Jackson. Drummond masih belajar melindungi catnya, dan pertahanan Detroits menderita setelah menyelipkan Harris ke dalam starting lineup kecil. Tapi kontinuitas daftar dan Van Gundy adalah kombinasi yang hebat. Orang-orang muda akan membaik, dan Van Gundy akan memanggil mereka setiap malam. Charlotte Hornets Pelanggaran tim ini beresiko, terutama jika Cody Zeller dan Marvin Williams siap tampil awal musim ini. Zeller adalah pria kasar yang hampir tidak Anda perhatikan, tapi ada mesin penyaringan turbo dan mematikan bola, dan mempercepat masalah pada tim tanpa ada orang yang bisa pergi dan mengambil ember. Bantu pembela yang masuk ke dalam untuk menabrak Zeller yang berguling ke pelek, dan Charlotte terbang melalui koridor kecil yang rotasi awal terbuka. Jalur tersebut menahan oksigen untuk serangan sisi-ke-sisi, drive-and-kick mereka. Tutupi mereka lebih awal, dan Anda bisa mencekik pelanggaran mereka. Roy Hibbert tidak tiba di jalur secepat Zeller, atau menyajikan tingkat ancaman yang sama begitu dia sampai di sana. Seperti yang terjadi, Charlotte menghasilkan bagian terendah dari sudut 3 di liga musim lalu Kemba Walker dan Nicolas Batum menangani bola dengan tinggi di sayap, dan mereka membutuhkan Williams, satu-satunya penembak jarak jauh yang dapat diandalkan lainnya di antara para starter, untuk menentukan pilihan untuk mereka. Bangku terasa sedikit kurang bisa diandalkan, dan terlalu banyak bergaul dengan pria bertubuh besar. Lawan ditembak hanya 36 persen pada musim lalu yang terbuka lebar, angka keempat terendah di liga, dan sebuah variabel yang bisa membalik ke arah lain. Tapi setiap malam sial, Anda bisa mengandalkan tim Steve Clifford untuk membersihkan kaca defensif, menutup permainan transisi yang berlawanan, menghindari pelanggaran, dan memaksa satu ton jumper midrange. Mereka pada dasarnya memulai setiap pertandingan 4-0. Atlanta Hawks Saya telah banyak menulis dan berbicara tentang orang-orang ini. Kami tahu pertanyaannya, dan Tiago Splitter sudah terluka. Tapi Atlanta memiliki bakat tingkat tinggi, dan seorang pelatih, Mike Budenholzer, yang memaksimalkan daftar nama. Salah satu pemula akan melewati kelas di Universitas Budenholzer untuk Project Wings, dan Hawks berada di Malcolm Delaney sebagai cadangan Dennis Schroders. Perut saya mengatakan salah satu dari tiga merindukan playoff. Saya tidak bisa memutuskan yang mana, jadi untuk saat ini, saya memilikinya semua masuk. KONTEN PRIME UNTUK NO. 8: WEST Dallas Mavericks Memphis Grizzlies Saya sudah memperkirakan kedua stalwarts ini akan melewatkan babak playoff. Saya tidak merasa senang dengan diri saya sendiri. Denver Nuggets New Orleans Pelicans Minnesota Timberwolves Yang meninggalkan satu tempat untuk tiga tim yang bisa berkisar antara 35 dan 43 kemenangan. Jika kita tahu Jrue Holiday akan kembali ke dalam, katakanlah, bulan pertama musim ini, Pelikan akan memiliki kaki. Mereka memiliki pemain dengan langit-langit tertinggi untuk musim ini - ya, rambut di depan Kota Karl-Anthony - dan kelompok sayap yang menarik untuk mengelilingi dia dalam daftar besar dan kecil. Jika mereka mengecewakan lagi, pekerjaan Alvin Gentrys bisa terancam. Serigala mengembalikan barisan awal yang dituangkan dalam 113,5 poin per 100 barang musim lalu - lebih baik dari tanda terbaik liga Golden States. Lineup itu mengerikan membela diri, tapi Tom Thibodeau setidaknya akan membawa mereka ke tempat yang tepat pada setiap kepemilikan. Menjadi satu tahun lebih tua akan membantu semua orang. Bangku itu goyah, terutama di sayap, dan tidak jelas apakah Kris Dunn siap melakukan pelanggaran NBA. Denver masih muda, dalam, dan sehat. Ketiganya dari Danilo Gallinari, Nikola Jokic, dan Jusuf Nurkic dapat memulai pelanggaran tersebut, mengurangi beban Emmanuel Mudiay. Tapi Mudiay masih berusia 20, dengan begitu banyak belajar, dan combo Jokic-Nurkic harus membuktikannya bisa bertahan dalam pertahanan. Saat ini, Id bersandar sedikit ke arah Minnesota untuk posisi nomor 8, sambil menunggu tanggal pengembalian pasti untuk Liburan. KONTEN PRIME UNTUK NO. 8: EAST Milwaukee Bucks Pick saya untuk benih nomor 8 sebelum Khris Middletons menghancurkan air mata hamstring. Penyerang bottom-10 tidak memperbaiki jahitan setelah menggerakkan Giannis Antetokounmpo untuk menunjuk ke depan, tapi mengarah ke sesuatu. Bucks menjadi tidak nyaman untuk bermain melawan. Mereka memberanikan diri untuk canggung. Jika Antetokounmpo membela kekuatan ke depan dan Bucks berhenti, getah malang itu terjebak menjaga kombinasi Flash dan Rubber Man yang menjalankan pick-and-roll dalam semi-transisi. Beralihlah orang kecil ke Antetokounmpo untuk memadamkan keadaan darurat itu, dan Freak Yunani akan gelisah-terburu-buru yang mendorongnya ke blok untuk mendapat post-up yang limbuh. Milwaukee memiliki jarak nol bahkan dengan Middleton yang sehat, tapi mereka pintar menyelinap melewati celah-celah kecil yang bisa mereka buka: Parker adalah pemburu yang berbakat dan mengamuk. Antetokounmpo dan Greg Monroe adalah orang-orang yang memiliki post-pass pass yang tinggi. (Omong-omong: Milwaukee sudah mempersiapkan kemungkinan Monroe memilih kesepakatannya untuk 2017-18, kata sumber liga). Bucks tahu pertahanan akan menyesuaikan diri dengan makanan stabil Antetokounmpo pick-and-rolls, jadi mereka mencampuradukkan semuanya. . Antetokounmpo akan memulai beberapa barang di sudut atau di siku, dan kadang-kadang bertindak sebagai screener dalam pick-and-roll - sebuah pembalikan yang membingungkan pertahanannya. Dia nyaman mengemudi dari mana saja, bahkan melawan pembela yang menggantungkan 10 kaki darinya, dan cukup lama dengan lengan go-go-gadget itu untuk melepaskan selimut lewat di sudut yang aneh. Dia bisa ambil-dan-pergi setelah rebound, dan Bucks akan pintar membiarkannya lepas dalam masa transisi. Antetokounmpo mengembangkan chemistry lob yang bagus dengan Miles Plumlee, dan pertahanan mereka - berantakan sepanjang musim - membaik setelah Plumlee menggantikan Monroe dalam starting lineup. Milwaukee tampak siap untuk bersenang-senang. Dan kemudian bencana melanda Middleton, pemain terbaiknya musim lalu. Milwaukee membutuhkan dua penembak 3 titik berbahaya di sekitar trio AntetokounmpoParkerPlumlee, dan lebih sulit bagi mereka untuk sampai ke sana sekarang tanpa mengorbankan unsur-unsur lain. Tony Snell memiliki potensi yang belum tergali, namun tidak ada di alam semesta Middletons sebagai pembom 3 titik dan playmaker sekunder. (Saya sangat bersemangat untuk melihat bagaimana Michael Carter-Williams akan melaju sebagai titik fokus ofensif saat Antetokounmpo beristirahat.) Parker tidak mengerti apa-apa dari bola dalam pertahanan, dan Bucks memerlukan renovasi besar pada akhir pertandingan sekarang karena liga memiliki Menemukan skema tekanan pukulan lemah Kidds hanya tiga tim yang diizinkan bermain lebih lebar pada musim lalu, per NBA, dan lawan tinggal di area terlarang. Washington Wizards Pilihan cadangan saya untuk benih nomor 8 sampai ada kabar bahwa Ian Mahinmi, pembela bebas Secretbook Intelligent di musim panas Busted KDtoDC, menjalani operasi untuk memperbaiki robekan meniskus. Ugh. Dapatkah sesuatu berjalan baik untuk orang-orang ini Untungnya, Wizards sarat dengan pusat di belakang Marcin Gortat. John Wall mencapai kecepatan puncak setelah dua operasi lutut, dan Wiz yakin mereka dapat menjaga kesehatan Bradley Beal dengan memantau menit-menitnya dan bekerja di tempat yang lebih hati-hati. Scott Brooks tidak akan mengulangi kesalahan Randy Wittmans dengan terburu-buru masuk ke mode go-go, fast-breaking dimana daftar berderit tidak siap. Semangat akan membaik. Beberapa nomor SportVU non-publik menunjukkan lawan Wiz memiliki kesenjangan positif terbesar antara persentase lapangan-gol yang diperkirakan mengingat kualitas tembakan mereka, dan persentase lapangan mereka sebenarnya - yaitu Washington menderita nasib buruk. Wiz yang seram tipis di sayap, dan Beal adalah 1-untuk-4 dalam membuatnya melalui musim yang sehat. Tapi Wall adalah bintang ketika dia fokus - mengambil pertahanan lagi, sobat - dan Wiz sangat bagus saat Wall and Beal berbagi lantai. Mereka harus memenangkan pertarungan tampan yang menyedihkan ini untuk unggulan nomor 8, dan jika salah satu tim di atas mereka terjatuh, akan menjadi bencana bagi Washington untuk melewatkan babak playoff lagi. Penampilan lotere lainnya bisa membuat Ernie Grunfeld bekerja. Dia bukan hakim agung A. S. Chicago Bulls Jangan biarkan orang-orang ini melubangi fakta bahwa mereka menjual pelanggaran kecepatan dan ruang angkasa Fred Hoibergs - bukan kemampuan adaptasi Hoiberg, tapi sistem itu - sebagai unsur yang hilang untuk mendorong mereka selangkah lebih maju dari pada Tom Thibodeau. Lebih dari setahun kemudian, mereka telah memberi Hoiberg koleksi paling tidak lucu dari penembak bola tanpa menembak. Mungkin tidak seburuk yang terlihat. Jimmy Butler mencetak 38 persen dari dalam di kedua 2012-13 dan 2014-15. Dwyane Wade adalah penembak tengah kelas menengah, meskipun ia menembak di bawah 40 persen pada 2-pointer panjang dalam setiap dua musim terakhir. Bermain bersama LeBron membuatnya ahli dalam memotong bola saat pembela mengabaikannya. Chicago akan terhuyung-huyung menit sehingga Doug McDermott bermain satu ton dengan dua trio WadeButlerRajon Rondo. Orang-orang ini memiliki hoops IQ yang keluar dari telinga mereka, dan setiap anggota frontcourt lima tingkat mereka menawarkan sesuatu yang sedikit berbeda. Kedalaman membuat Anda melalui permainan 82-permainan ketika cedera dan pemogokan kelelahan. Scoring akan bekerja dengan lima pembela menanam kaki di cat. Hal-hal akan terhenti jika Rondo menahan bola pada pelanggaran selama dia suka. Menonton Rondo dan Wade lollygag bersama dalam pertahanan transisi - pesta teh malas - akan mendorong kacang Hoiberg. Tapi Bulls memiliki bakat dan kecerdasan untuk mencetak 40 kemenangan, dan begitu Anda tiba di sana, satu atau dua detik Anda menyelinap masuk. INTRACTIVE DREK Brooklyn Nets Deez Nets memiliki cukup banyak pemain NBA untuk menghadapi pertarungan yang lumayan hampir setiap malam. Mereka optimistis Justin Hamilton adalah pria rotasi sejati, dan bahkan berbisik tentang harga diri Anthony Bennetts yang menenangkan. Jeremy Lin akan memasang angka, dan Brook Lopez menunjukkan sedikit variasi musim lalu dalam permainan dua orang - termasuk kimia memberi-dan-pergi bagus dengan Shane Larkin. Mereka akan lari, dan jack banyak 3s. Ketika mereka menjuarai combo sayap Bojan Bogdanovic dan Sean Kilpatrick, mereka mungkin terlihat seperti pelanggaran NBA yang berbahaya. Lopez juga mengatakan kepada saya bahwa dia memiliki ide untuk maskot baru Nets setelah pembunuhan rahasianya dari Brooklyn Knight, jadi Nets memilikinya untuk mereka. Yang bagus Mereka hanya memiliki terlalu banyak orang yang tidak terbukti dan pembela lunak. Mereka akan menjadi buruk, dan mereka tahu itu. Mereka ingin membangun budaya dari bawah ke atas, menemukan satu atau dua orang rotasi muda, dan mulai memetakan beberapa jenis penglihatan. Menentukan posisi Lopez dalam visi tersebut akan menjadi tantangan sepanjang musim. In theory, they should trade him now hes coming off a monster healthy season, and he has two years left on his contract -- happy things that might entice teams spooked by his past foot injuries. Hes 28, so he wont be around when the Nets are relevant. Sean Marks, Brooklyns new GM, has already shown in swapping Thad Young for the No. 20 pick that he will sell a little low on veterans to replenish Brooklyns raided draft pick cupboard. On the flip side, remove Lopezs 22 million salary for next season, and the Nets could enter free agency 50 million below the salary floor . Without much to sell beyond the city, will the Nets be able to spend on anyone better than Lopez Philadelphia 76ers Joel Embiid shoe-horning the process into every possible context might be my favorite subplot of the season. Bryan Colangelo wants the Hinkieites to move on, and there goes his franchise centerpiece parroting Sam Hinkies pet phrase -- and even co-opting it as a nickname We all know whats going to happen: Philly will be less bad, net another high pick, trade one of Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor (probably Noel) for some future asset, and pray Embiid and Ben Simmons are healthy at the end of the season. Almost everything else is noise. Cynical dot-connectors around the league wonder if Colangelo might look to install his own hand-picked coach after the season if Philly disappoints. I cant get there. Brett Brown is massively popular, and he deserves every chance to see this through after three years coaching a team constructed to lose. The team signed him to an extension just last season, and Colangelo would risk a backlash moving away from him anytime soon. Los Angeles Lakers Its such a relief to watch the Lakers for something other than the carnivalesque. If Timofey Mozgov provides anything as a dive-and-dunk guy, the Lakers have a chance to be decent -- and downright fun -- on offense. DAngelo Russell keeps the ball on a string and defenders on his back, and he can jack 3s off the bounce. Julius Randle isnt a modern playmaking power forward, but he manufactures a different sort of spacing by facing up, torching suckers off the bounce, and drawing help near the rim. Bump Randle or Larry Nance Jr. up to center in small-ball groups, and Luke Waltons Warriors-infused motion offense will sing. Thats also a nice way to sneak Luol Deng and Brandon Ingram some time at power forward. If Nance hones his jumper, he may end up a better choice than Randle to start alongside L. A.s ball-dominant guards. The defense is going to be ugly. The Lakers again owe their pick to Philly if it comes below No. 3, and barring a major surprise, theyll be sweating on lottery night. Phoenix Suns Phoenix sports perhaps the best pile of young talent and future picks outside Philly (ironic, since it flipped the leagues most coveted traded pick to Philly in exchange for Brandon Knight), including Devin Booker, an untouchable with a preternaturally diverse offensive game. They also have Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley, Leandro Barbosa, a six-year playoff drought, and an owner who has been vocal about his impatience to break that drought. These guys dont appear willing to just let the kiddos play, and swallow the losses. Thats fine losing sucks, and there is value in veteran mentorship. Squint, and you can see the outlines of a feisty team: Eric Bledsoe is back, and he should help the leagues most turnover-prone team value the ball. Surround a Bledsoe-Chandler pick-and-roll with some shooting (Booker, Dudley) and playmaking (T. J. Warren), and Phoenix could cause some stress. (They also plan to run more Portland - and Dallas-style flow offense, with bigs handling at the elbows and a ton of off-ball movement, to take some pressure off of Bledsoe.) But any lineup featuring Booker, Warren, and Dudley will bleed points and rebounds, even with Bledsoe and Chandler bookending it. The bench is almost like a post-grad team of guys beefing up their college applications, though one of them, Marquesse Chriss, could start by the end of the season. The Suns have to avoid doing something dumb to chase a short-term high. THRASHING ABOVE THE DREK, REACHING FOR NO. 8 Orlando Magic Tackled these guys at length over the summer. Frank Vogel will turn around a defense that has been porous since the Dwightmare, especially if he settles on some combination of Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, and Bismack Biyombo in the frontcourt to protect late-game leads. Its just unclear if an offense can function with defenders sagging off Elfrid Payton, Gordon, and two big men at the same time. Evan Fournier might be Orlandos best pick-and-roll guy, but where in the hell is he going dribble in that forest Its hard to win when you launch few 3s and rank dead last -- two years running -- in free-throw rate. Its fighting math, and over 82 games, math wins. Still: They have the talent and coaching to hang around a sad playoff race. This is a big year for Payton. You dont lavish D. J. Augustin with a four-year, 29 million contract if you are convinced Payton is your future point guard. Scott Skiles wasnt. New York Knicks Teams with injury-risk starters and unproven reserves are just a bad bet in the regular-season. The Knicks spasmed through more roster turnover than almost anyone, and it will take time for them to figure out how they want to play -- how much triangle they want to use, how Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah will share the elbows, and the best way to mesh Derrick Roses pick-and-roll speed with Melos slicing triple-threat game. Placing the Knicks here is really a vote of no-confidence in Rose. He just hasnt been good in years, even when healthy, and he needs the ball to be of any use. If Noah moves in and out of the lineup, the Knicks may struggle (again) to get stops. They ranked 18th in points allowed per possession last season, and that may overstate things opponents shot just 35.4 percent on wide-open 3s, per SportVU data provided to ESPN, tied with Dallas for the lowest such mark in the league. Miami Heat A team that didnt take or make enough 3s last season lost its four most prolific bombers. Tyler Johnson should help if he gets more time off the ball. Luke Babbitt is the starting power forward on the Anthony Morrow Theoretical 3-Point Shooters Who Never Play. Josh Richardson scorched last season, but hes still recovering from knee issues. These guys will play really hard. They blitzed the league after the All-Star break, and the core young guys - Richardson, Johnson, and Justise Winslow - fly around the court with the sort of snarling hunger that inspires everyone else to find their inner nasty. Expect a lot of Winslow at power forward, if only because the Heat dont have better options. Goran Dragic produced like a borderline All-Star whenever Erik Spoelstra detached him from Wade, and Hassan Whiteside is a monster. Miami just doesnt have shooting or reliable depth around them. Sacramento Kings Every year, we look at the Kings roster and talk ourselves into it: You know, if it all comes together, they could win 40 or so games It doesnt appear to be coming together. In the past two months alone, Rudy Gay essentially told the team to get bent the league suspended Darren Collison, Sactos overmatched starting point guard, for eight games Collisons backup, Ty Lawson, missed a flight back from Vegas and Vivek Ranadive, the teams owner, blamed everyone else for every bad decision the Kings have made since he has been the boss. Teams outplay their on-paper talent when everyone, from the owner down to the 15th guy, care about the same things. Dave Joerger showed he could get that kind of buy-in from a ravaged motley crew in Memphis last season, and hell bring some basic organizing principles to a defense that didnt seem to have any. Slowing the pace will help DeMarcus Cousins settle into post position, and run more inside-out offense. There is just too much turmoil swirling across the organization. Cousins has never been a unifying force that insulates the team from melodrama. In simpler basketball terms, its tough to win in the modern NBA with the type of collective guard play the Kings project to get from Collison, Lawson, Arron Afflalo and Ben Get Me the Hell Out of Here McLemore. Sacramentos roster tilts big, and that doesnt make a ton of sense when your franchise player -- the guy that has to play 35 minutes for you to win games -- is a center. Zach Lowes annual tiers of the NBA Its time for our last big preseason tradition: plopping all 30 teams into tiers to snapshot their place in the league hierarchy at this precious moment when everyone is 0-0. These are not strict power rankings, and the order within each bucket doesnt necessarily matter. At least a half-dozen teams could slide up or down a tier, or even across three the gooey center of the NBA is unusually muddled. TRILOGY PARTICIPANTS Golden State Warriors Cleveland Cavaliers Weve never seen an NBA Finals trilogy, but as things stand today, any other outcome would be shocking. What LeBron did to Golden State last June should give pause to anyone anointing this four-headed super team. His performances while facing elimination in Games 5 and 6 -- a combined 82 points, 29 rebounds, 16 assists, and six aura-shattering blocks -- stand as the greatest back-to-back in Finals history. He imagined a way to beat this specific opponent, and then made it happen. He dragged Stephen Curry through an obstacle course of pick-and-rolls until he cracked just enough room for something -- a thundering drive, those dripping soft lobs to Tristan Thompson, cross-court lasers to spot-up shooters. He hounded Draymond Green on defense, switched onto Curry, and vaporized the Curry-Green pick-and-roll that had been the launchpad to a thousand open 3-pointers. By Game 5, the Cavaliers understood the enormity of the Golden State challenge -- how one half-second of miscommunication on defense could undo 20 seconds of excellence, and how severely the yappy, grinning Warriors would punish tiny errors. The Cavs had played hard before then, but they had not pushed themselves beyond that, and into the haze of total mental and physical exhaustion. They know now what it takes to beat this juggernaut. They know they can summon it, because they already did. The Warriors, of course, underwent some minor renovations over the summer. Kevin Durant takes Harrison Barnes place in the vaunted Death Lineup, erasing one of the two spots where opponents -- including Cleveland when Kevin Love played -- would hide their big men. If both Tristan Thompson and Love are on the floor against that group, one of them will guard Andre Iguodala. Whos the other one guarding Playing two traditional bigs against this lineup will be much harder than it was against Version 1.0. Good thing the Cavs cinched up their wing depth by adding Mike Dunleavy Jr. and ending their staring contest with J. R. Smith. Still: Keep an eye on Iman Shumpert. Several teams, including Minnesota, have inquired about his availability in the past few weeks and gotten the impression Cleveland is ready to talk, according to several league sources. The Cavs wont salary-dump Shump for nothing, but given their tax situation, cutting payroll by a few million promises exponential savings. The Cavs need Shumpert, or at least the fully realized version of a player like him, to scamper and switch with Golden States small lineups. Without him, they risk overtaxing Dunleavy, Richard Jefferson, and their extra bigs. Its easy to suggest opponents defending the Death Lineup simply ignore Green and Iguodala - that any shot from one of them is a victory. But ignoring them means giving up wide-open driving lanes, and suddenly youre faced with a choice: concede a layup, or send help from Curry, Durant or Klay Thompson. You cant script a plan that helps only off Golden States weaker players, and allows them only jumpers. Durant gives them too many options -- new switchproof pick-and-roll combinations with Curry, and old-school throw it to the third-best player in the NBA on the block dump-ins when a hyperalert defense smothers Golden States prettier stuff. When it counts, the Warriors will play this super-small group even more than they did the original. It should be better on both ends, with an uptick in rim protection Durant is 7-feet tall, and blocked more shots last season than Barnes has in his career. It is unclear how you even begin to defend it. The looks Golden State has generated out of it in the preseason have been almost laughable. Yeah, they have some issues. Zaza Pachulia is learning the ropes, and the depth beyond the top seven is unproven. JaVale McGee ruins everything. Theres a non-zero chance a vengeful Sam Presti is paying him to sabotage the Warriors. On some nights, Golden State will go cold from deep. Give Cleveland two of those nights in June, and they have a chance. But Pachulia will catch on we are only eight months from his achieving hero status for stabilizing the rag-tag Mavs. Someone on the bench will pop. And when the Warriors put their five best guys on the floor, they turn the game into a math problem almost no one can solve. AINT NEVER GONNA GIVE UP Los Angeles Clippers If Blake Griffin can be the best player in the world for two weeks, the Clippers are the only Western Conference team with the explosiveness and precision to challenge Golden State in the playoffs. We saw this Griffin during the first round against San Antonio two years ago. He laid waste in the post, directed fast breaks, and emptied the tank on both ends over 41 minutes per game. Hell have to switch across five positions, pressure ace 3-point shooters, rush back inside to control the glass, and then bully Golden States only weak spot on the other end. DeAndre Jordan will have to do the same. Together, they have a vertical brutality the Warriors cant match. The Clippers just havent maintained integrity over enough full defensive possessions in all those demoralizing losses to Golden State. Jordan or Griffin will nail the first switch, trail their new guy for three seconds, and then botch Golden States next screening action -- leaving a fatal pocket of airspace. Over 19 games across the past three seasons, the Warriors have blitzed L. A. for about 109 points per 100 possessions on 40 percent shooting from deep. You cant hit every dance step against the Warriors they put you through too damned many. But the Clippers must hit more to overcome their structural disadvantages -- a hole at small forward, and a lack of size along the perimeter. Chris Paul isnt quite 6-0, and J. J. Redicks arms are short they can do only so much when they switch onto Durant or Green. (The occasional Paul-Green battle on the block presents some tense, tangled violence, and the possibility of simultaneous groin shots.) Hell, Klay Thompson is comfortable going right at, and over, Redick. Jamal Crawford may not be able to play real minutes in this matchup the Warriors offense bamboozles him. Austin Rivers could play more, including in three-guard lineups with Paul and Redick -- a setup in which Griffin may have to guard Durant straight-up against certain Golden State groups. They might need Wesley Johnson, and needing Wesley Johnson has never turned out well for anyone. The Clippers are probably a guy short -- and maybe two. This group hasnt made it beyond the second round. Their collapse against Houston remains inexplicable, even two years later. But at full throttle, they are awesome, and Griffin has another level still in him. BEST OF THE REST San Antonio Spurs Its cool if you want them in a higher tier. They posted a beefier scoring margin than the 73-win Warriors, after all. Theyll win 55 games, and Kawhi Leonard has a realistic shot at the MVP-Defensive Player of the Year double dip. Just throwing a simple post entry pass around Leonard is like playing Operation, complete with hand trembling from anxiety. At least one or two of the younger bench guys will gain Gregg Popovichs full trust, allowing him to cut Pau Gasols minutes against Golden State -- just as he did with another aging legend last season. They are ultra-long around the basket, and should remain a top-three defense. Gasol and Aldridge will drag both opposing big men 20 feet from the rim, rain long jumpers, and pick out cutters all over the floor. They just feel light on the zip factor. Some of that is by design they want to slow the pace, back you down on the block, and exploit the midrange area everyone ignores. They are tailor-made, in theory, to play tall-ball against the Warriors smaller lineups. But a lot of those post-ups will result in tough floaters and turnarounds Green is an unmovable cinder block, and Durant is long enough to challenge everything. Contested midrange looks only get you so far against elite defenses. When that shot clock dwindles, you need a guy who can get buckets from nothing -- a high-flier with some off-the-bounce skills, a pick-and-roll ace, or some pogo-stick to cram lobs and put-back dunks. You need to survive for five or six minutes on transition points and free throws. The Clippers have more of that volatility than the Spurs -- especially on nights when Tony Parker looks his age. Boston Celtics The clock is quietly ticking. Cheapo deals for Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas expire after next season. If Boston lands their big fish before then, theyll pay what it takes to keep them -- assuming at least one remains after the Great Theoretical Celtics Megatrade. If the Cs cant find their match, they face a dilemma: Pay those guys something like 50 million combined annually and lock into a team that might top out at 50-ish wins, or deal one of them at next seasons deadline -- if not before. Remember: Both are blocking younger lottery picks. Lots can happen between now and February 2018. This Boston team could exceed expectations, or hover around 48 wins the Celtics seem quietly confident they could push the Cavs this season if a few breaks fall their way. LeBron could finally age (ha, ha). The new collective bargaining deal will probably make it easier for players to sign contract extensions, a change that could pump up trade value for Thomas and Bradley even as their deals approach expiration teams that nab them would have an easier time extending them on the spot. If the Celtics conclude this seasons team cant make real playoff noise, Bradley becomes a sneaky interesting trade piece even though Danny Ainge loves him. (Thomas is indispensable Boston has no one else who can skitter into the teeth of enemy defenses.) But Boston should make playoff noise. They had the scoring margin of a 50-win team last season. Al Horford reanimates every limb of an offense that suffocated amid cramped spacing. Hes a better shooter than every other Boston big, save Kelly Olynyk, and by far the most well-rounded pick-and-roll option of the Brad Stevens era -- key for a team that ranked an ugly 27th in points per possession on plays their screeners finished with a shot, turnover, or drawn foul, per Synergy Sports. Boston should also do better from deep than the dreadful 33.5 percent it hit last season. The Celtics nailed just 34 percent from the corners, fourth-worst in the league Marcus Smart shot an unthinkable 20 percent on those short triples, and Bradley dipped to 33 percent -- an outlier for him. Toss in a defense that should be among the three or four stingiest, and Boston starts in a dead heat with Toronto for the No. 2 seed. Toronto Raptors There is a lot of hand-wringing over the departure of a center who can barely catch a basketball. Bismack Biyombo was great for the Raptors, and durable, but he also benefited from playing on hybrid reserve units with Kyle Lowry and Patrick Patterson -- Torontos best traditional power forward. Slide this seasons backup center -- Jared Sullinger, Bebe Nogueira, one of the rookies -- into that same template, and the Raptors will do fine. Jonas Valanciunas is ready for more, anyway, and with DeMarre Carroll healthy, Toronto will finally explore some explosive lineups. The group of Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Carroll, Patterson, and Valanciunas, for instance, logged just 16 minutes all of last season. Slide Carroll to power forward, and Toronto might discover switchy lineups that make up for shaky rim protection on the back line by preventing anyone from driving there in the first place. Norman Norm Powell could help unlock some of those groups. Toronto might slip a hair on defense, and theyll feel Biyombos absence on the boards now and then. But these guys have enough talent and shared corporate knowledge to coast by teams that spend the first 40 games getting to know each other. Love the Drakes. ROCK SOLID PLAYOFF TEAMS Indiana Pacers Indy traded some defense (and maybe some rebounding) to juice a moribund offense, but they didnt add enough shooting in the bargain to open space for all their slasher types. The roster may add up to exactly the sum of its parts. And thats fine. The Pacers have enough talent to hit the No. 4 range even if the players dont complement each other in the magical way that lifts a team to a higher plane. They have Paul George, a surefire top-10 overall player. Paul George is a boss . Myles Turner will grow into his new last-line-of-defense responsibility faster than a typical 20-year-old. The fortified bench should hold steady after last seasons version almost single-handedly blew Indys first-round series against Toronto. Portland Trail Blazers There is a ton of skepticism around the league about Portland. The Blazers enjoyed near-perfect health last season, and slid into an unexpected power vacuum when Utah, New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento, and Houston imploded. They ranked an ugly 21st in points allowed per possession, and played above-.500 ball only during a sizzling midseason jaunt against mostly bad teams. But watch the Blazers, and you see a mature team comfortable in its own skin -- and primed for the kind of organic improvement that comes when young teammates marinate together. Theyre well-versed in Terry Stotts read-and-react offense, and they should come out of the gate a bit better on defense now that theyre starting Al-Farouq Aminu at power forward. That lineup fouled at a low rate, crucial for the Blazers, who spent most of the season hacking the bejesus out of everyone. The smaller, switchier group is just better at keeping the ball in front of them. That will still be a challenge for Portland in reserve lineups unless Stotts really shrinks the rotation Meyers Leonard, Festus Ezeli, and Ed Davis are all basically centers, and the Blazers will have trouble chasing smaller opponents when any two of them play together. Cut the hacks, and Portland has the foundation of sturdy defense. They entice a ton of midrangers, and shut off both the restricted area and those juicy corner 3s. Opponents shot a preposterous 42.5 percent on the few wide-open 3s they managed, per tracking data provided to ESPN, and if sheer randomness pushes that number down, the Blazers could at least hit league-average on defense. Houston Rockets The only question that matters -- and one that got a little more pressing with the news from our Calvin Watkins that Patrick Beverley may need knee surgery: Just how bad is Houstons defense going to be There is a lot of evidence that an elite defense is a slightly more powerful predictor of championship contention than an elite offense, and the same may be true on the downside. Only seven teams that fell into the bottom five in points allowed per possession made the playoffs over the past 20 seasons, according to data compiled by ESPN Stats Information. Those teams ranked about third on average in offensive efficiency. The prognosis gets better if you are merely not terrible a full 32 teams, about 1.5 per season season, squeaked into the playoffs with bottom-10 defenses. Meanwhile, a bunch more -- 42 -- got in despite bottom-10 offenses over that same 20-year stretch. Houston is going to score the hell out of the ball. If they stay healthy and trudge closer to 20th in overall defense, they should win enough games -- something in the high-40s -- to secure a spot. Thats not easy for any team featuring Ryan Anderson, an unhidable saboteur, and it definitely wont be easy if Houston gets the comatose version of James Harden and Eric Gordon. Some of these guys have scary injury histories. But Harden is in shape, and the Rockets have enough solid defenders -- including two centers -- to achieve some minimum level of competence. Having perhaps the second-best offense in the league will help its easier to set your defense and get stops after a bucket -- or even better, a free throw. Oklahoma City Thunder It isnt going to be pretty. The Thunder are poor on shooting, and they just dont have the personnel to whip the ball around in artful passing sequences that build to an orgasmic crescendo. Their offense post-Durant is a straight-ahead battering ram heading toward walls of defenders. And on a lot of nights, they will run right through those freaking walls. You think Russell Westbrook is worried about those three defenders waiting at the dotted line When he misses at the rim, the leagues best offensive rebounding team is ready to pounce. The Thunder no longer have the luxury of taking nights off on defense, but they have the goods to play into late April. Im already (gulp) on record calling a 50-win season. BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT PLAYOFF TEAMS Detroit Pistons Detroit was ensconced in the solid playoff tier before Reggie Jacksons knee problems ahead of a packed early schedule. Analytics gurus at other teams have mocked my freaking out about Jackson missing perhaps a quarter of the season they project the injury might cost Detroit just one or two wins. Theyre probably right. But the Jackson-Andre Drummond spread pick-and-roll literally is Detroits offense. They can try to mimic it with Ish Smith, but his jumper is busted defenders will duck 10 feet under Drummonds picks to cut off Smiths roadrunner drives. Stan Van Gundy has antidotes Drummond will set two or three screens in a row so that Smith can play hide-and-seek, and set some picks below the foul line -- so Smith is already in range for his delightfully loopy floater. Smart defenses with their feet set will navigate all that on a lot of possessions, and stall out Detroits offense. Help defenders will flood the paint from every direction until Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, and Tobias Harris prove consistent from deep. Van Gundy has talked about diversifying in Jacksons absence, and both Morris and Harris can soak up some creative duties. Drummond has honed his righty hook and passing chops to the point that throwing it to him on the block isnt an awful option. The bench should be better than last seasons sinkhole. The margin for error is small without Jackson. Drummond is still learning to protect the paint, and Detroits defense suffered after it slid Harris into a small-ish starting lineup. But roster continuity and Van Gundy are a powerful combination. The young guys will improve, and Van Gundy will have them dialed in each night. Charlotte Hornets This teams offense is at risk, especially if Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams arent ready for the start of the season. Zeller is a grunt guy you barely notice, but hes a turbo screening machine on and off the ball, and speed matters to a team without anyone who can just go and get buckets. Help defenders zip inside to bump Zeller rolling to the rim, and Charlotte flits through the little corridors that initial rotation pries open. Those pathways hold oxygen for their side-to-side, drive-and-kick attack. Close them a beat earlier, and you can suffocate their offense. Roy Hibbert doesnt arrive in the lane as quickly as Zeller, or present the same threat level once he gets there. As is, Charlotte generated the lowest share of corner 3s in the league last season Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum handle the ball high on the wings, and they need Williams, the only other reliable long-range gunner among the starters, to set picks for them. The bench feels a little less reliable, and overstocked with big men. Opponents shot just 36 percent on wide-open 3s last season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league, and a variable that could flip the other way. But every damn night, you can count on Steve Clifford team to clean the defensive glass, shut down the opposing transition game, avoid fouls, and force a ton of midrange jumpers. They basically start every game up 4-0. Atlanta Hawks Ive written and talked a lot about these guys already. We know the questions, and Tiago Splitter is already injured. But Atlanta has top-level talent, and a coach, Mike Budenholzer, who maximizes his roster. One of the rookies will skip a grade at the Budenholzer University For Project Wings, and the Hawks are high on Malcolm Delaney as Dennis Schroders backup. My gut says one of these three misses the playoffs. I just cant decide which one, so for now, I have them all getting in. PRIME CONTENDERS FOR NO. 8: WEST Dallas Mavericks Memphis Grizzlies I already predicted both these stalwarts would miss the playoffs. I dont feel great about myself. Denver Nuggets New Orleans Pelicans Minnesota Timberwolves That leaves one spot for three teams that could all range between 35 and 43 wins. If we knew Jrue Holiday would return within, say, the first month of the season, the Pelicans would have a leg up. They have the player with the highest ceiling for this season -- yes, a hair ahead of Karl-Anthony Towns -- and an interesting group of wings to surround him in lineups big and small. If they disappoint again, Alvin Gentrys job could be in jeopardy. The Wolves return a starting lineup that poured in 113.5 points per 100 possessions last season -- better than Golden States league-best mark. That lineup was horrific defensively, but Tom Thibodeau will at least get them into the right spots on every possession. Being a year older will help everyone. The bench is shaky, especially on the wing, and its unclear if Kris Dunn is ready to run an NBA offense. Denver is young, deep, and healthy. All three of Danilo Gallinari, Nikola Jokic, and Jusuf Nurkic can initiate the offense, easing the burden on Emmanuel Mudiay. But Mudiay is still 20, with so much to learn, and the Jokic-Nurkic combo has to prove it can survive on defense. Right now, Id lean slightly toward Minnesota for the No. 8 spot, pending a definitive return date for Holiday. PRIME CONTENDERS FOR NO. 8: EAST Milwaukee Bucks My pick for the No. 8 seed before Khris Middletons devastating hamstring tear. Milwaukees bottom-10 offense didnt improve a lick after it moved Giannis Antetokounmpo to point forward, but it was onto something. The Bucks became uncomfortable to play against. They imposed awkwardness. If Antetokounmpo defended a power forward and the Bucks got a stop, that poor sap was stuck guarding a combination of The Flash and Rubber Man running a pick-and-roll in semi-transition. Switch a little guy onto Antetokounmpo to snuff that emergency, and Greek Freak would bum-rush that dude onto the block for a limbsy post-up. Milwaukee had zero spacing even with Middleton healthy, but they were smart slipping through the little crevices they could open: Parker is a gifted, rampaging slasher. Antetokounmpo and Greg Monroe are slick high-post passers. (By the way: Milwaukee is already preparing for the possibility Monroe opts into his deal for 2017-18, league sources say.) The Bucks knew defenses would adjust to a steady diet of Antetokounmpo pick-and-rolls, so they mixed things up. Antetokounmpo would start some possessions in the corner or at the elbow, and sometimes act as the screener in the pick-and-roll -- an inversion that confused defenses. He is comfortable driving from anywhere, even against defenders hanging 10 feet off of him, and long enough with those go-go-gadget arms to thread wraparound passes at weirdo angles. He can grab-and-go after rebounds, and the Bucks would be smart to let him loose in transition. Antetokounmpo developed a nice lob chemistry with Miles Plumlee, and their defense -- a mess all season -- improved once Plumlee replaced Monroe in the starting lineup. Milwaukee looked ripe for a bounceback. And then disaster struck Middleton, its best all-around player last season. Milwaukee needs two dangerous 3-point shooters around the AntetokounmpoParkerPlumlee trio, and its harder for them to get there now without compromising other elements. Tony Snell has untapped potential, but hes not in Middletons universe as a 3-point bomber and secondary playmaker. (I was kind of excited to see how Michael Carter-Williams would fare as an offensive focal point when Antetokounmpo rested.) Parker is clueless away from the ball on defense, and the Bucks need a major renovation on that end now that the league has figured out Kidds helter-skelter pressure scheme only three teams allowed more wide-open 3s last season, per NBA, and opponents lived in the restricted area. Washington Wizards My backup pick for the No. 8 seed until news broke that Ian Mahinmi, Washingtons prized free agent acquisition in the Busted Summer of KDtoDC, had surgery to repair a torn meniscus. Ugh. Can something go right for these guys Fortunately, the Wizards are loaded with centers behind Marcin Gortat. John Wall is reaching peak speed after two knee surgeries, and the Wiz are confident they can keep Bradley Beal healthy by more carefully monitoring his minutes and off-day work. Scott Brooks wont repeat Randy Wittmans mistake of rushing into a go-go, fast-breaking style for which a creaky roster was unprepared. Morale will improve. Some non-public SportVU numbers show Wiz opponents had the biggest positive gap between the field-goal percentage wed expect given the quality of their shots, and their actual field-goal percentage -- i. e. that Washington suffered some bad luck. The Wiz are scary thin on the wing, and Beal is 1-for-4 in making it through a season healthy. But Wall is a star when hes focused -- pick up the defense again, buddy -- and the Wiz are damn good when Wall and Beal share the floor. They should win this sad slap-fight for the No. 8 seed, and if one of the teams above them here falls out, it would be a disaster for Washington to miss the playoffs again. Another lottery appearance could cost Ernie Grunfeld his job. Hes not a U. S. Supreme Court justice. Chicago Bulls Dont let these guys whitewash the fact that they sold Fred Hoibergs pace-and-space offense -- not Hoibergs adaptability, but that particular system -- as the missing ingredient to nudge them one step further than Tom Thibodeau could. Just over a year later, theyve provided Hoiberg the leagues most hilarious collection of non-shooting ball-handlers. Perhaps it is not quite as bad as it looks. Jimmy Butler shot 38 percent from deep in both 2012-13 and 2014-15. Dwyane Wade is an accomplished midrange gunner, though he shot below 40 percent on long 2-pointers in each of the past two seasons. Playing alongside LeBron made him an expert in cutting off-the-ball when defenders ignore him. Chicago will stagger minutes so that Doug McDermott plays a ton with two of the WadeButlerRajon Rondo trio. These guys have hoops IQ coming out of their ears, and every member of their five-deep frontcourt offers something a little different. Depth gets you through the 82-game slog when injuries and fatigue strike. Scoring will be work with five defenders planting feet in the paint. Things will stall out if Rondo holds the ball on offense as long as he likes. Watching Rondo and Wade lollygag together in transition defense -- a lazy little tea party -- will drive Hoiberg nuts. But the Bulls have talent and smarts to grind out 40 wins, and once you get there, youre a break or two from sneaking in. ATTRACTIVE DREK Brooklyn Nets Deez Nets have enough real NBA players to put up a passable fight most nights. They are optimistic Justin Hamilton is a real rotation guy, and even whispering about soothing Anthony Bennetts broken self-esteem. Jeremy Lin will put up numbers, and Brook Lopez showed a little more variety last season in his two-man game - including a nifty give-and-go chemistry with Shane Larkin. They will run, and jack lots of 3s. When they trot out the all-scoring wing combo of Bojan Bogdanovic and Sean Kilpatrick, they might almost look like a dangerous NBA offense. Lopez also told me he has ideas for a new Nets mascot after the mercy-killing of Brooklyn Knight, so the Nets have that going for them. Which is nice. They just have too many unproven guys and soft defenders. Theyre going to be bad, and they know that. They want to establish a culture from the ground up, unearth one or two young rotation guys, and begin mapping out some kind of vision. Determining Lopezs place in that vision will be a season-long challenge. In theory, they should trade him now hes coming off a monster healthy season, and he has two years left on his contract -- happy things that might entice teams spooked by his past foot injuries. Hes 28, so he wont be around when the Nets are relevant. Sean Marks, Brooklyns new GM, has already shown in swapping Thad Young for the No. 20 pick that he will sell a little low on veterans to replenish Brooklyns raided draft pick cupboard. On the flip side, remove Lopezs 22 million salary for next season, and the Nets could enter free agency 50 million below the salary floor . Without much to sell beyond the city, will the Nets be able to spend on anyone better than Lopez Philadelphia 76ers Joel Embiid shoe-horning the process into every possible context might be my favorite subplot of the season. Bryan Colangelo wants the Hinkieites to move on, and there goes his franchise centerpiece parroting Sam Hinkies pet phrase -- and even co-opting it as a nickname We all know whats going to happen: Philly will be less bad, net another high pick, trade one of Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor (probably Noel) for some future asset, and pray Embiid and Ben Simmons are healthy at the end of the season. Almost everything else is noise. Cynical dot-connectors around the league wonder if Colangelo might look to install his own hand-picked coach after the season if Philly disappoints. I cant get there. Brett Brown is massively popular, and he deserves every chance to see this through after three years coaching a team constructed to lose. The team signed him to an extension just last season, and Colangelo would risk a backlash moving away from him anytime soon. Los Angeles Lakers Its such a relief to watch the Lakers for something other than the carnivalesque. If Timofey Mozgov provides anything as a dive-and-dunk guy, the Lakers have a chance to be decent -- and downright fun -- on offense. DAngelo Russell keeps the ball on a string and defenders on his back, and he can jack 3s off the bounce. Julius Randle isnt a modern playmaking power forward, but he manufactures a different sort of spacing by facing up, torching suckers off the bounce, and drawing help near the rim. Bump Randle or Larry Nance Jr. up to center in small-ball groups, and Luke Waltons Warriors-infused motion offense will sing. Thats also a nice way to sneak Luol Deng and Brandon Ingram some time at power forward. If Nance hones his jumper, he may end up a better choice than Randle to start alongside L. A.s ball-dominant guards. The defense is going to be ugly. The Lakers again owe their pick to Philly if it comes below No. 3, and barring a major surprise, theyll be sweating on lottery night. Phoenix Suns Phoenix sports perhaps the best pile of young talent and future picks outside Philly (ironic, since it flipped the leagues most coveted traded pick to Philly in exchange for Brandon Knight), including Devin Booker, an untouchable with a preternaturally diverse offensive game. They also have Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley, Leandro Barbosa, a six-year playoff drought, and an owner who has been vocal about his impatience to break that drought. These guys dont appear willing to just let the kiddos play, and swallow the losses. Thats fine losing sucks, and there is value in veteran mentorship. Squint, and you can see the outlines of a feisty team: Eric Bledsoe is back, and he should help the leagues most turnover-prone team value the ball. Surround a Bledsoe-Chandler pick-and-roll with some shooting (Booker, Dudley) and playmaking (T. J. Warren), and Phoenix could cause some stress. (They also plan to run more Portland - and Dallas-style flow offense, with bigs handling at the elbows and a ton of off-ball movement, to take some pressure off of Bledsoe.) But any lineup featuring Booker, Warren, and Dudley will bleed points and rebounds, even with Bledsoe and Chandler bookending it. The bench is almost like a post-grad team of guys beefing up their college applications, though one of them, Marquesse Chriss, could start by the end of the season. The Suns have to avoid doing something dumb to chase a short-term high. THRASHING ABOVE THE DREK, REACHING FOR NO. 8 Orlando Magic Tackled these guys at length over the summer. Frank Vogel will turn around a defense that has been porous since the Dwightmare, especially if he settles on some combination of Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, and Bismack Biyombo in the frontcourt to protect late-game leads. Its just unclear if an offense can function with defenders sagging off Elfrid Payton, Gordon, and two big men at the same time. Evan Fournier might be Orlandos best pick-and-roll guy, but where in the hell is he going dribble in that forest Its hard to win when you launch few 3s and rank dead last -- two years running -- in free-throw rate. Its fighting math, and over 82 games, math wins. Still: They have the talent and coaching to hang around a sad playoff race. This is a big year for Payton. You dont lavish D. J. Augustin with a four-year, 29 million contract if you are convinced Payton is your future point guard. Scott Skiles wasnt. New York Knicks Teams with injury-risk starters and unproven reserves are just a bad bet in the regular-season. The Knicks spasmed through more roster turnover than almost anyone, and it will take time for them to figure out how they want to play -- how much triangle they want to use, how Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah will share the elbows, and the best way to mesh Derrick Roses pick-and-roll speed with Melos slicing triple-threat game. Placing the Knicks here is really a vote of no-confidence in Rose. He just hasnt been good in years, even when healthy, and he needs the ball to be of any use. If Noah moves in and out of the lineup, the Knicks may struggle (again) to get stops. They ranked 18th in points allowed per possession last season, and that may overstate things opponents shot just 35.4 percent on wide-open 3s, per SportVU data provided to ESPN, tied with Dallas for the lowest such mark in the league. Miami Heat A team that didnt take or make enough 3s last season lost its four most prolific bombers. Tyler Johnson should help if he gets more time off the ball. Luke Babbitt is the starting power forward on the Anthony Morrow Theoretical 3-Point Shooters Who Never Play. Josh Richardson scorched last season, but hes still recovering from knee issues. These guys will play really hard. They blitzed the league after the All-Star break, and the core young guys - Richardson, Johnson, and Justise Winslow - fly around the court with the sort of snarling hunger that inspires everyone else to find their inner nasty. Expect a lot of Winslow at power forward, if only because the Heat dont have better options. Goran Dragic produced like a borderline All-Star whenever Erik Spoelstra detached him from Wade, and Hassan Whiteside is a monster. Miami just doesnt have shooting or reliable depth around them. Sacramento Kings Every year, we look at the Kings roster and talk ourselves into it: You know, if it all comes together, they could win 40 or so games It doesnt appear to be coming together. In the past two months alone, Rudy Gay essentially told the team to get bent the league suspended Darren Collison, Sactos overmatched starting point guard, for eight games Collisons backup, Ty Lawson, missed a flight back from Vegas and Vivek Ranadive, the teams owner, blamed everyone else for every bad decision the Kings have made since he has been the boss. Teams outplay their on-paper talent when everyone, from the owner down to the 15th guy, care about the same things. Dave Joerger showed he could get that kind of buy-in from a ravaged motley crew in Memphis last season, and hell bring some basic organizing principles to a defense that didnt seem to have any. Slowing the pace will help DeMarcus Cousins settle into post position, and run more inside-out offense. There is just too much turmoil swirling across the organization. Cousins has never been a unifying force that insulates the team from melodrama. In simpler basketball terms, its tough to win in the modern NBA with the type of collective guard play the Kings project to get from Collison, Lawson, Arron Afflalo and Ben Get Me the Hell Out of Here McLemore. Sacramentos roster tilts big, and that doesnt make a ton of sense when your franchise player -- the guy that has to play 35 minutes for you to win games -- is a center.
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